WTF is happening in German politics right now?
I thought I'd write a summary in English of what's going on in German politics at the moment, as even the Germans don't have enough hands anymore to throw them up in horror, and the details may be lost in the aftermath of the US election. So I figured it might be of interest to some people abroad who don't follow German news so closely.
Well, the German coalition government of SPD (social democrats), Greens and FDP (liberals) collapsed last Wednesday and there will be early elections in February 2025. Regular elections would have been held in November anyway, so there's not that much of difference timewise.
But the reason for the collapse is clear: FDP leader Christian Lindner, until last week finance minister. He and his party have repeatedly shown that they are not trustworthy coalition partners. Wikipedia describes the FDP as liberal, but I think that has a different meaning in Germany than it does in the US. I would consider them free-market neo-feudalists, so they are more right than left. If they could, they would like to completely abolish the welfare state and privatise everything, in the spirit of Margaret Thatcher. They only do patronage politics for the rich.
To be honest, it's surprising that the coalition lasted as long as it did.
In the last months there has been a big fight between the three parties over the budget, and Lindner has blocked any compromise and any concessions from the others. Roughly a week before the meeting last Wednesday, he published a paper advocating a completely different and opposing economic policy, which could only be seen as an affront. His aim was to bring down the coalition and lead to new elections. This was supported from the beginning by Matthias Döpfner, CEO of the Axel-Springer publishing house, which owns the German Bild newspaper and Die Welt, among others.
But at Wednesday's meeting, Lindner made a mistake and gambled away. The FDP was indiscreet with the press, which reported during a session break that there would be new elections. Scholz reacted to this loss of trust by sacking Lindner on the spot. Afterwards, Scholz gave probably the best speech of his life and publicly slammed Lindner in a way that no one would have expected him to do.
His speech can be seen here, with the possibility of english subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q7sVdDibIU
As a result, the FDP and all its ministers left the coalition. The only exception was Transport Minister Volker Wissing, who left the FDP instead – a thoroughly respectable decision.
Now the opposition is taking the stage. Chancellor Olaf Scholz wanted to call a vote of confidence in mid-January. This was too late for the opposition party CDU and its leader Friedrich Merz. In order to push through urgent legislation together with the SPD and the Greens, he tried to blackmail Scholz into bringing forward the vote of confidence and thus forcing new elections earlier. (Because everyone wants to campaign during the Christmas period... Not).
After some back and forth, it has now been informally decided that new elections will be held on 23 February.
What are the prospects for the future? Scholz is once again the SPD's candidate for chancellor. Many think that Defence Minister Boris Pistorius would have been a better choice, as he is far more popular than Scholz, but never mind. Robert Habeck, the current Minister of Economic Affairs, has thrown his hat into the ring as the Greens' candidate for chancellor.
According to the latest polls, the FDP's approval ratings are so low that they are unlikely to return due to the 5% threshold. Good riddance.
However, it is highly likely that Friedrich Merz will win a majority with the CDU. (The CDU is also the party to which Chancellor Angela Merkel belonged.) Merz himself is seen as a kind of Trump light by many. He may be able to form coherent sentences, but he is bending the facts to suit his agenda. He is a tough populist and a power-political tactician. In recent months, he has made headlines for his rhetoric against foreigners and the unemployed. He has adopted much of the narratives of the far-right AfD, which has grown stronger in recent months, partly because its positions have been further normalised in the media.
It is difficult to say what the next election results will be, as there is another free radical in the form of the new BSW party. They are even less concerned with the facts and tend to favour Russian propaganda.
In any case, there is a good chance that the CDU, AfD and BSW will get a big slice of the cake. The AfD wants to destroy democracy from within and I think it will be nearly impossible to form a stable government with these three parties.
The SPD and the Greens are unlikely to get a majority, as many were unhappy with the current coalition. But this was also caused by various smear campaigns in the Axel Springer press. It is also difficult to say how good a candidate Habeck is for the Greens' chancellorship. He is by far the only one who makes his policies transparent and who can argue well and objectively. Nevertheless, there are many who don't necessarily like him. He is not afraid to confront people with unpleasant truths, which does not always go down well. In addition, many regular Green voters are extremely angry because the party has also supported decisions that go against its own values, particularly in the area of asylum law.
In short, the new election will be a game of Russian roulette. We may be lucky, but I also see a high risk for the future of Ukraine, for European unity and for the fight against climate change.
This work by Marc Riese is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
