Could it exist a Brazillian Leicester?

19 de outubro de 2023

I was reading this post about the chances of a new Leicester in the future of the Premier League. The post is excellent. Read it.

England has the famous “big six,” which makes it easier to classify all other clubs as underdogs or Leicesters. In Brazil, it’s challenging to define the major clubs.

Everyone knows that only teams from SP, RJ, and Cruzeiro have won the Brazilian Championship since the switch to the round-robin format. The round-robin format reduces the chances of better teams not winning after 38 rounds. The better teams are almost always the richer ones, which are usually the big clubs. I won’t go into which clubs are considered significant or big. Yet. But, excluding Cruzeiro, only teams from the two wealthiest states in the country have managed to win the Brazilian Championship. This excludes big teams like Inter, Grêmio, and Galo, who even won Libertadores during this period.

So, the round-robin championship represents a barrier within a limited number of possible title contenders. Starting to answer the title question.

The chance for a smaller team is slight because, in Brazilian football, there are many big teams. It’s easier to have an underdog in a league with 18 underdogs where only two teams need to falter than in one where half the table is considered big clubs. And Brazil has the traditional 12. But Bahia and the emerging CAP should be on this list; some might argue that Botafogo is no longer big since Túlio. And so it goes.

To define underdog teams, you need to determine the group of “big” teams. “Big” in quotes because it has nothing to do with the distant history and achievements. Damn it, Tottenham is one of the big six. So, the big clubs at the moment aren’t historically big clubs, but of course, history still plays a part.

In an interview, Lisca stated that there are currently seven “giants.” According to him:

These are the giants today because, besides giving you structure, they pay well, provide good players, and give you the conditions to do great work.

These are my criteria, summarized as clubs with better financial conditions and more significant investment potential in the short and medium term. Thus, the “giants” for Lisca are Grêmio, Inter, Flamengo, Corinthians, Santos, São Paulo, and Palmeiras.

He leaves out Cruzeiro, Vasco, and Botafogo, the three prime examples of completely bankrupt big teams, and I agree with the coach. Leaving Galo out is absurd, especially since 2021 was the year of the new Selegalo. But does anyone believe in the next few years that Fluminense and CAP will compete for the Brazilian Championship against Grêmio, a better-managed São Paulo, or a resurgent Corinthians? I don’t believe it.

Not to mention the two richest clubs in Brazil: Flamengo and Palmeiras. If well managed and with a shorter calendar, these two would compete in the Brazilian Championship like Man City and Liverpool have in recent years.

The list of clubs that people would be surprised to win the Brazilian Championship, as with Leicester, certainly does not include Flamengo, Palmeiras, Atlético, São Paulo, Corinthians, Inter, and Grêmio.

If not all at the moment, these clubs, history, tradition, and fans have the most potential to have financial investment power in football for the next few years. These are, in a very shallow analysis, indeed the seven “giants” that Brazil has at the moment. Our Brazilian big seven.

The issue with Brazil is that this group would be different ten years ago. Brazilian football is much more volatile than English football. Nevertheless, it still is, which is excellent. The so-called “Spanishization” of Brazilian football, talked about for a long time, still seems a bit far off.

Of course, there are no more fools; football is about the moment, a box of surprises, and everything is very level.

But where’s Santos (which, for me, is the greatest club in Brazil’s history)? And why isn’t Pelé’s club here? Simple. It’s challenging to stay competitive in today’s football when you’re from a remote city with less than 500,000 inhabitants and without massive media support.

When I talk about being competitive, I specifically mean having the squad and conditions to compete in the round-robin Brazilian Championship round after round against Flamengo and Palmeiras. The Copa do Brasil and Libertadores are another story. The great Inter teams of the 2000s, Renato’s Grêmio, which may have been one of the greatest Grêmio teams in history, and Neymar’s Santos couldn’t win the round-robin Brazilian Championship. It’s a very tough championship for those outside the “axis.” TL;DR?

What are the chances of a club that is not Flamengo, São Paulo, Palmeiras, and Corinthians; Grêmio and Inter; Cruzeiro or Atlético Mineiro winning the Brazilian Championship in the next few years?

We can include Fluminense, Santos, CAP, Vasco, and Botafoto on the list if you want. What needs to be analyzed is the possibility of a club outside of SP, RJ, POA, BH, or Santos winning the Brazilian Championship.